Primary Day is Here!
Some commentary, picks & prognostications; maybe an endorsement or three
Well, folks, May 24th is finally here, and for us political junkies — we’re all here for it!
Naturally the smart money is on Kemp having a big lead, big enough based on some polls to possibly avoid a runoff. A couple the last few weeks even had him in the 60%+ range. Yesterday, however, and Insider Advantage released a poll that was telling a much different story.
I think my thoughts from Twitter yesterday summed it up:
Not saying that Perdue will keep Kemp from 50% + 1 but I definitely think it’s a possibility. As one statewide politico mentioned to me the other day — “any poll is a sampling of a particular political universe, but is that the political universe that will be voting.” And I think that’s pretty key. Also, many Perdue supporters are very distrustful of all things media & establishment so they may be choosing not to participate in these polls.
We shall see.
Switching gears to Lt. Gov, I believe BurtButch Jones-Miller will be the victor! Which one’s which? Who cares? Does it really matter?
Btw, I voted for Jeanne Seaver in this one.
Secretary of State
Very likely a runoff between Jody Hice (whom I voted for) & ole Crooked Raffensperger.
I wrote about this one the other day. Very likely a runoff w/ a crowed field of eight w/ Mike Collins as a lock. Who will be the other participant? That’s a great question. Kind of hard to get a bead on it. Best candidates would be Broun, Vernon & Curry, methinks. Again, we shall see.
State Senate 17
I’m proud to endorse Brett Mauldin in this one & think he’s got a pretty good shot. I got the chance to meet this fellow a while back & was just very much impressed. He’s legit & I think he’d be great to replace Strickland in the General Assembly’s upper chamber.
As many of you know, this is the one I’ve been keeping the keenest eye on. While certainly I’ve been givin’ it pretty hard to poor ole Lil’ Timmy, I do think Wendell McNeal is a good & decent man & I think he’d make a great representative in The People’s House.
In terms of a prediction - which several have been asking me about - I truly think McNeal has a really good chance to win this thing. I mean, think about it. He’s gonna have great numbers in all of Morgan Co. (but what about Belton’s endorsement? I can hear some saying. Well, what about it? Don’t think it really meant much of anything to most folks there).
Also, very importantly, is the Rivian factor. Fleming is purported to be the Rivian candidate. Not only does that kill him in western Morgan, it does the same for eastern Newton.
So that takes us to Covington, Fleming’s presumed stronghold. Well, remember, several hundred households were removed from HD 112 when it was redistricted to HD 114. So, that’s going to have a negative effect for Tim’s numbers. Also, I know of a lot of folks in C-Town that sure as hell ain’t voting for him & for that matter I know a few folks who have his signs in their yard that won’t be voting for him either.
So, enough already! Give us a number, MB!
Alright. From my analysis it’s fluctuated a bit & I think a couple of weeks ago McNeal may have actually been in the mid 50s but I get the feeling it’s tightened up a bit so I’ll go w/ this:
McNeal 52 / Fleming 48
Could be wrong, think I’m right, though…
I ran a story yesterday about alleged financial improprieties in re Nelson Heights that had originally first been broken on FB compliments of the proficient attorney — Ms Stephanie Lindsey. Plus, there are other things going on & more than anything — I believe the good folks of the 4th have just had enough of JC Henderson; or, to use the campaign slogan of his opponent Willie Jackson — It’s Time For A Change!
And if you haven’t already, get out there & vote!