Talkin' GA 10 Congressional GOP Primary
Mike Collins seemingly with large lead, runoff most likely
Ed. note: I’m currently working on several pieces in draft form as well as a few others I haven’t yet begun regarding the upcoming May 24th election including another report on Tim Fleming as well as a commentary piece on him; a write-up on SD 17; the GA SOS race as well as the Governor’s & my old TPC tradition of putting out a piece right before election day with some of my endorsements & prognostications. Should be releasing 6-8 pieces over the next five days, so stay tuned… - MBM
When current 10th Rep Jody Hice announced his intent to run for GA Secretary of State last year, it set the stage for the wide open field we’ve seen in this one as well as a cascade effect that has rippled throughout the entire state.
The man who got edged out by Jody Hice in 2014, Mike Collins - Son of Mac, was the presumed front runner last year & has only solidified that position in the last few months; however, with such a crowded group (eight qualified candidates), it seems at least somewhat likely that this one will head to a runoff in which one never knows how it may turn out.
There has been no official polling done by any of the regional or national firms in this race since February as far as I can tell though several candidates have been doing internal polling which shows - again - Collins with a big lead. The only question is if it will be enough for 50% + 1.
The current fundraising totals for this election seem to mirror the presumed polling as Collins has out-raised his closest competitor by over $400K & has more than four times the amount of cash on hand than any of the other seven qualified candidates.
And in terms of unofficial political sampling - counting of yard signs - Collins, at least around these parts, also seems to have a big lead.
A few surprises, though.
State rep Timothy Barr, despite being endorsed by Hice, apparently hasn’t gotten much traction at all & is in the bottom tier in terms of campaign cash.
Marc McCain has fared better than I think some were expecting.
And I’m betting that Vernon Jones is now wondering if he should’ve just stayed in the Gubernatorial race. He really hasn’t done much of anything & may now just be hoping to maybe finish 4th or 5th.
Curry, based on money & perceived support, definitely has a shot at making the runoff.
The wildcard is this race in my opinion is the Old Doctor — Paul Broun. He’s raised some decent funds & has about $100K currently in the coffers. He does have name recognition & by all accounts has been running a hard race.
We’ll see what we see but as I mentioned earlier — all bets are off in a runoff.
- MBM